Age 67 - ALPA

Pilot Supply and Age 67: The Facts

The ALPA Board of Directors—representatives directly elected by ALPA pilots—unanimously affirmed our union’s opposition to raising the mandatory retirement age, a position that is supported by an overwhelming majority of ALPA pilots. Due to misinformation and misrepresentation about pilot retirement age, this issue is complicating passage of the Senate FAA reauthorization bill.

Keep reading to learn the truth behind these claims.

ALPA members: Don’t let the minority voices speak for you. Lawmakers will be making decisions that affect your career, so please make sure your voice is heard by writing and/or calling your senators today! Participation is easy through our Call to Action program.

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Myth:

Thousands of highly skilled and experienced airline pilots exited the industry during the pandemic, primarily at the largest airlines, exacerbating an existing pilot shortage. These airlines replenished their pilot workforce by hiring pilots in unprecedented numbers from smaller air carriers that provide air service to small-and medium-sized airports.

Facts:

During the pandemic, airlines offered various “early out” retirement-inducement programs, primarily to pilots between the ages of 62 and 65 to help reduce costs for airlines. There were approximately 6,000 retirements in 2020.
This had minimal effect on supply. Instead, the 2020 retirements merely accelerate retirements planned to take place in the following 3 years, with lower retirements in 2021–2023.
Consequently, pilot retirements have stabilized at approximately 3,000 retirements a year while the industry has produced nearly 10,000 new pilots for each of the last two years, including a record-breaking 11,225 in 2023.

Myth:

Without a sufficient supply of pilots, service to small-and medium-sized airports has collapsed across the country, despite robust passenger demand.

Facts:

Since deregulation in 1978, airlines have made their business decisions based on expected consumer demand, geography of growth, route profitability, network planning and allocated flights, frequency of service, and aircraft purchases, accordingly.
Simultaneously, for nearly a decade, airlines have shifted to “higher gauge” aircraft with more seats and away from fuel-inefficient regional aircraft. According to Wall Street analysts, by retiring smaller regional jets in favor of larger and newer aircraft, carriers will “see operating cost efficiency and market share gains” (source: “En-gauging the Growth Engine.” Morgan Stanley Research, June 30, 2021) by improving unit costs, matching consumer demand with supply, and improving aircraft features (source: “United Next—not just an aircraft order,” Deutsche Bank Research, June 29, 2021).
Fifty-seat aircraft, which historically operate to smaller markets, are fuel inefficient, cannot accommodate high-end, first-class seating, are expensive to maintain, and consequently are being phased out by the industry (source: “The 50-Seat-Jet Era Will End Soon at Republic Airways Holdings Inc.,” The Motley Fool, May 22, 2014).

Myth:

Raising the retirement age is the only near-term solution that will help restore air service and provide time for longer-term workforce solutions to take effect.

Facts:

Raising the retirement age will result in a lower utilization rate for pilots, rather than an increase.
Since the multicrew pilot age for international flying is set by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), noncompliance will mean that some pilots will bid on flights they cannot perform but will be paid for based on seniority.
Approximately 40 percent of pilots at age 64 are on some form of sick, long-term, or short-term medical leave. If the age is increased, the number of pilots on leave will increase since senior pilots will not be able to fly the international routes.
For many pilots it is not their decision to move to smaller aircraft to comply with domestic-only flying. Pilot contracts, in most cases, have provisions—bypass clauses—that grant the airline unilateral authority in the final years of pilots’ career to prohibit changes in equipment. These clauses exist because the carrier would rather incur the dead payroll cost than pay for retraining a pilot and the attendant cascading training events such a move would have on other pilots further down the seniority list.
Under a theoretical scenario where pilots eventually must rebid to smaller aircraft—which is not a given under current long-term contractual commitments—this would simply force a cascading and costly training event that would reduce the number of available pilots.

Myth:

Congress increased the retirement age from 60 to 65 in 2007, with no negative impact on aviation safety. Existing regulations require two pilots on the flight deck, and no other profession is assessed as extensively or frequently as pilots who must undergo mandatory medical examinations every six months and with an EKG every 12 months.

Facts:

Congress increased the pilot retirement age in 2007 after both ICAO and the FAA decided to move in favor of change. The FAA, in fact, created an Aviation Rulemaking Committee and multiple work groups, including aeromedical personnel, prior to supporting an increase in the pilot retirement age—nearly a year after ICAO increased the age in 2006 (source: Age-60 Rule: The End Is in Sight Anna Cornell, Susan P. Baker, and Guohua Li. Aviation, Space, and Environmental Medicine. Vol. 78, No. 6. June 2007).
More importantly, this is a false equivalence; the pilot retirement age in 2007 was to harmonize to the international standard, rather than to break from it. Being out of compliance with ICAO limits pilot flying rather than increasing it, as was the case in 2007.

Myth:

Part 135 operators are not subject to a retirement age, and pilots over age 65 are currently providing safe, scheduled, passenger service safely through the Essential Air Service Program.

Fact:

Part 135 has a much higher accident rate than Part 121. There should be no increase in risk based on arbitrary decision to reduce Part 121 standards to a different, lower safety threshold.

Myth:

Absent immediate policy action by Congress, the shortfall of pilots could reach over 38,000 by 2030, including 15,000 mandatory retirements over the next five years alone. According to the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), 61 percent of qualified pilots must retire within the next two decades, and over this same period 4,300 ATP holders will reach the mandatory retirement age each year on average.

Facts:

These numbers are yet another false equivalency. The letter puts forth contradictory numbers that all have a fatal flaw—they are claiming there will be a massive shortage for FAR 121 pilots but are instead comingling data for all pilots, including those who have an ATP and do not fly anymore, pilots flying in charter, fractional, on-demand, and unscheduled carriers.
There are approximately 3,000 pilots at FAR 121 operators who are scheduled to retire each year. These pilots are being replaced by a much larger applicant pool, meaning incoming pilots, both at the ATP and CPL level, are more than replacing retirements.
By the RAA’s own methodology “4,300 ATP holders . . . [will retire each year],” ATP retirements are replaced by nearly 10,000 ATP certifications per year.

Myth:

If these pilots are allowed to continue to fly, it will slow down the domino effect of attrition, equipment changes, and retraining that start with the retirement of a senior pilot, which ultimately culminates in the hiring of a pilot from a smaller air carrier. By moderating this attrition, smaller air carriers will be able to stabilize their workforce. This in turn will help create the environment where lost air service can return.

Facts:

This is the exact opposite of how mainline air carriers, Wall Street, and pilot unions understand the airline industry. Placing the United States in noncompliance with ICAO will create a category of older pilots who will be paid not to fly, will be on paid leave, or otherwise will have to change aircraft and seat (i.e., from captain to first officer), setting off a massive domino effect for the mainline airline industry.
It is well understood by the vast majority of the airline industry that by creating a disjuncture between ICAO and the United States will lower pilot utilization overall.
While regional airlines have struggled with captain attrition from the mainline and ultra-low-cost carrier growth in 2021 and 2022, by the admissions of regional carriers—including the largest such carrier, SkyWest Airlines—with new, higher-paying contracts, they expect to manage attrition (source: SkyWest Earnings Call, Q1 2022) for captains while first officer classes are filled (source: SkyWest Earnings Call, Q3 2021). These honest comments were made under penalty of securities laws, rather than in a political forum.

Myth:

Despite increased FAA pilot certifications in 2022, there are not enough pilots qualified for hire. Though 9,491 new pilots qualified in 2022—the highest number on record—it fell far short of the 13,128 hired by just one subset of large air carriers that same year. The scenario repeated itself in 2023; through November 9, 300 new pilots qualified for an ATP, yet this same subset of carriers had already hired 11,052 pilots.

Facts:

The most up-to-date numbers show 11,225 certifications in 2023.
The footnote the RAA references in this myth is from FAPA Aero, a resource on airline pilot hiring that acknowledges that the 13,000 number is not accurate and includes “double counting” of the same pilots.
The FAPA disclaimer is as follows:
- “Disclaimer: In the spirit of complete transparency, we do understand that there may be some double counting within these numbers, as a hire for one airline in February might end up getting hired at another airline later in the year. So, while we acknowledge these numbers won’t necessarily represent over 13,000 separate individuals hired, they do represent over 13,000 jobs offered to pilots. To view the individual hiring data for each of the twelve major and global airlines, view our Major Airline Pilot Hiring History table, link provided at the bottom of this bulletin.”
Rather than use double counting, we use publicly available data pulled from the Department of Transportation and Securities and Exchange Commission 10K filings from the airlines documenting their actual pilot headcount under penalty of securities law.

Myth:

Currently more than 400 regional aircraft are parked.

Facts:

There are 358 RJs not in use, not 400. 120 of these aircraft are formally retired (i.e., aircraft that are not coming back ever), and a number of the 238 inactive aircraft will be phased out.
Older aircraft cost more to operate, require heavy maintenance, and have high fuel burn. In addition to huge changes in “gauge” by air carriers, regional jets are getting very old and are being phased out because mainline airlines—who own most of the regional aircraft—are placing orders for newer, larger, and more fuel-efficient aircraft.
Many planes are formally retired, more will be retired, and the inactive and retired planes are out of service because they are old, expensive, and don’t serve the carriers’ current interests—including the mainlines’ who structure the regional air carriers’ business.

Myth:

The shortage of pilots is an immediate crisis that will continue to force major and regional airlines to significantly reduce capacity and growth for the remainder of the decade and beyond. Consumers will ultimately pay the price in the form of higher airfares and reduced service options, including more frequent flight delays and cancellations.

Facts:

Regarding the discussion of pilot supply, the Department of Transportation has just released definitive annual data showing that there are more pilots today than prior to the pandemic. Specifically, the DOT’s office that compiles and publishes airline industry data—the Bureau of Transportation Statistics—reports that there are net 1,818 more pilots through the end of 2022 relative to prior to the pandemic in 2019.
Major air carriers—through their SEC 10K filings—report higher numbers. Specifically, ALPA carriers Delta and United report an additional 4,664 more pilots relative to the BTS numbers for a net 6,482 more overall pilots at the end of 2022 systemwide relative to 2019. (source: Delta Air Lines Inc. 2022 Form 10K reports 15,040 pilots relative to 11,583 for BTS Data. United Airlines, Inc. Form 2022 10K reports 13,831 relative to 12,624 for BTS Data).
The RAA letter is living in the past about pilot employment. In addition to net higher overall pilot headcounts, pilot production is at an all-time high, with the FAA granting 11,225 certifications in 2023—the largest number ever recorded. In response, as the Wall Street Journal reported, Delta is actually slowing down pilot hiring, as are other carriers like Spirit and FedEx Express. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal documented that UPS successfully offered buyouts to senior pilots to stem slowing demand. Pilot hiring is simply slowing down according to the major airlines.

Myth:

Nine countries currently have retirement ages above 65, and the International Civil Aviation Organization is in the process of reviewing best practices used by these countries as it considers an update to its own age standards.

Facts:

This is totally false. ICAO is not currently considering or tasked with increasing the pilot retirement age. The ICAO ambassador (Charge’ d’Affaires) has reported that a new mandatory retirement age is not under consideration.
While it has been suggested that a change to the pilot retirement statute would force ICAO to make a commensurate change, this is inaccurate. ICAO is made up of 193 member bodies, and such a change is normally made by consensus.

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